RT - Journal Article T1 - Numerical Study on the Effects of Climate Change on Sea Surface Temperature in the Persian Gulf JF - JOC YR - 2020 JO - JOC VO - 10 IS - 40 UR - http://joc.inio.ac.ir/article-1-1527-en.html SP - 29 EP - 38 K1 - Climate change K1 - Persian Gulf K1 - Sea surface temperature K1 - CORDEX K1 - MIKE 3FM AB - Abstract This paper presents the assessment of effect of climate change on surface temperature of the Persian Gulf, using MIKE three-dimensional numerical model. Parameters such as air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed components, precipitation rate and the sky transparency have been utilized for hydrodynamics simulation of the region. ECMWF data in the Persian Gulf for the period of (1980-2000) and downscaled CORDEX data in RCP 8.5 scenario for the period of (2080-2100), have been implemented to the model. The effect of the climate change on sea surface temperature was evaluated by studying the differences between the average patterns in years 1980-2000 and 2080-2100. The results demonstrate that surface temperature in future; will increase in all seasons. This increment becomes smaller towards the deeper parts of the region. Based on conducted numerical modeling results, it is predicted that the water temperature in future climate, will have the highest increment in summer with the value of 4.6 °C. Spring will have the lowest increment with the value of 3.5°C. It is also predicted that the average sea surface temperature in the Persian Gulf will increase about 4.1 °C in autumn and 3.8°C in winter. LA eng UL http://joc.inio.ac.ir/article-1-1527-en.html M3 10.52547/joc.10.40.29 ER -