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Estimating the Next Twenty Years of Cargo Traffic of Sea, Road and Rail Modes of Transport at Imam Khomeini Port Complex Using Time-Series Analysis Model
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Bahram Shomali Pour   , Nasser Saeidi , Amer Kaabi , Hamidreza Hallafi , Asghar Rashnoodi |
| , bahram.shomalipour@yahoo.com |
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Abstract: (12001 Views) |
| This study aims to extract the functions of demand and estimating cargo traffic of each transportation
modes (road & railroad) connected to the Iran's hinterland transportation network within a range of 20
years (case study of Imam Khomeini Port). For this purpose, first effective explanatory variables were
identified then traffic load of the modes were estimated using two stage simultaneous equation model of
time series analysis by Eviews software. The results indicate that in case of no change in current policies,
share of railway in cargo transportation to/from this port will be reduced significantly and at the most will
reach 5%. That is in contrast with the objectives of the 20 year national transportation master plan calling
railway for 30% of national cargo transportation. |
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| Keywords: Estimating cargo traffic, Hinterland, Simultaneous equations. |
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Full-Text [PDF 124 kb]
(2889 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research/ Original/ Regular Article |
Received: 2014/06/22 | Revised: 2015/02/28 | Accepted: 2014/06/22 | ePublished: 2014/06/22
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