Background and Theoretical Foundations: The blue economy, which includes water-dependent businesses in sectors such as tourism, maritime transport, energy, and fishing, is a relatively new research area. Planning for sustainable development within the framework of the blue economy focuses on equitable access, development, and sharing of the benefits derived from marine resources. Following these principles, the blue economy aims to "improve human well-being and social equity" while minimizing environmental risks and ecological deficiencies. Iran, with a marine area of 190,000 square kilometers and approximately 5,800 kilometers of coastline (accounting for about 40% of the country's borders), is considered a maritime nation. It has access to seas from both the north and south but ranks among the lowest globally in utilizing this natural resource. According to published statistics, the blue economy in the European Union in 2014 employed over 3.36 million people across various sectors, including trade, transportation, marine tourism, fisheries, and exploitation of natural resources, energy, and economic cooperation at regional and international levels. Moreover, activities such as using coastal areas and sea waves for electricity generation or recreational sports, coastal or deep-sea tourism, and hydrotherapy are some of the most significant sources of employment in these regions. For instance, every job created in the maritime economy generates four additional ancillary jobs. However, in Iran, most activities in coastal areas are limited to urban and rural zones with port and military facilities, covering only 5% of the coastal regions, leaving 95% of the country's coastal potential untapped. Given Iran's location in a global arid belt and limited freshwater resources, utilizing seawater for agricultural activities and desalination is among the most critical developmental programs. Therefore, adopting a maritime-oriented economic approach could open new horizons for the country to move away from an oil-dependent economy. Expanding maritime transportation, prioritizing safety and security, developing port logistics, and privatization aligned with the resistance economy approach, alongside environmental conservation, can ensure and promote the country's sustainable development. In conclusion, Iran’s water expanses represent one of the country's political strengths and economic growth capacities, positioning it as an influential global power. This role can now be further reinforced with modern, innovative planning and strategies. Unfortunately, the vast and unique opportunities in Iran's coastal areas, including tourism, trade, residential development, industries, and fisheries, remain largely unused due to the lack of development in residential and economic zones. Nevertheless, given their geographic and natural advantages and proximity to major Asian ports, these regions are considered ideal for economic development from an international trade perspective.
Methodology: In this context, the study employs econometric methods and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the impact of fisheries and aquaculture production, the value-added of agriculture and forestry, coastal tourism, maritime transport, trade value-added, and government investment in ports on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This research examines the effect of blue economy components on the sustainable economic growth of Iran over the period from 1993 to 2023.
Findings: The results revealed that, both in the short term and the long term, fisheries and aquaculture production as well as maritime transport have the most significant and positive impact on economic growth. Additionally, trade value-added and coastal tourism play a crucial role in stimulating economic growth. However, government investment in ports did not show a significant impact on economic growth, which could be attributed to low efficiency or the time-consuming nature of returns on such investments.
Conclusion: The results of the ARDL model indicated that the key components of the blue economy—including fisheries and aquaculture production, the value-added of agriculture and forestry, coastal tourism, maritime transport, and trade value-added—have a significant and positive impact on Iran's economic growth. In the short term, fisheries and aquaculture production and maritime transport, particularly with a one-period lag, had the highest impact on GDP. This highlights the importance of optimizing the use of water resources and developing maritime transport infrastructure. Additionally, trade value-added and coastal tourism also played a significant role in stimulating economic growth. In the long term, fisheries production and maritime transport demonstrated the most substantial and sustainable positive effects on economic growth, underscoring the necessity for policy-making to strengthen these sectors. On the other hand, government investment in ports showed no significant impact on economic growth in both the short and long term, possibly due to insufficient efficiency or the time-consuming nature of returns on such investments. Overall, the findings emphasize the importance of strategic planning for utilizing the potential of the blue economy, especially in the sectors of maritime transport, coastal tourism, and fisheries and aquaculture production. Such planning can lead to sustainable economic growth in Iran through effective investment attraction, productivity enhancement, and sustainable resource management. Moreover, policymakers should pay special attention to developing infrastructure related to the blue economy to maximize the potential for boosting GDP. These results can serve as a basis for formulating development policies in the field of the blue economy and its role in achieving sustainable economic growth in Iran. |
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